Peran Risiko Geopolitik dan Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi Amerika Serikat Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan

Abstrak

The purpose of this study is to determine how economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the United States affect the stock prices of the composite index. Furthermore, this study uses control variables such as Indonesian inflation, the rupiah/USD exchange rate, world oil prices, gold prices, and the Dow Jones index, as well as a simulation of the global financial crisis. The ARDL method was used from January 2000 to April 2020. All variables were transformed into natural logarithms. The evaluation results show that geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty in the United States negatively impact the stock prices of the composite index. Investors are waiting and monitoring the results due to uncertainty in US economic policy, including frequent changes in fiscal and monetary policy, and increasing geopolitical risk in the US. The composite stock price index is significantly influenced by the results of the evaluation of control variables, including the Dow Jones index, the rupiah/USD exchange rate, world oil prices, world gold prices, and crisis indicators; however, inflation does not have a significant impact.

ABSTRAK

Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui bagaimana ketidakpastian ekonomi serta risiko geopolitik di Amerika Serikat mempengaruhi harga saham indeks komposit. Selain itu, penelitian ini menggunakan variabel kontrol seperti inflasi Indonesia, nilai tukar rupiah/USD, harga minyak dunia, harga emas dan indeks Dow Jones, serta simulasi krisis keuangan global. Metode ARDL dipakai pada bulan Januari 2000 hingga April 2020. Seluruh variabel ditransformasikan ke dalam logaritma natural. Hasil evaluasi menperlihatkan bahwa risiko geopolitik dan ketidakpastian perekonomian di Amerika Serikat berdampak negatif terhadap harga saham indeks komposit. Investor menunggu dan memantau hasilnya karena ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi AS, termasuk seringnya perubahan kebijakan fiskal dan moneter, serta meningkatnya risiko geopolitik di AS. Indeks harga saham gabungan dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh hasil evaluasi variabel kontrol antara lain indeks Dow Jones, nilai tukar rupee/USD, harga minyak pasar dunia, harga emas dunia serta indikator krisis; Namun, inflasi tidak memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan.